Probability by 2 Great Friends

Math Online Tom Circle

Today Probability is a “money” Math, used in Actuarial Science, Derivatives (Options) in Black-Scholes Formula.

In the beginning it was “A Priori” Probability by Pascal (1623-1662), then Fermat (1601-1665) invented today’s “A Posteriori” Probability.

“A Priori” assumes every thing is naturally “like that”: eg. Each coin has 1/2 chance for head, 1/2 for tail. Each dice has 1/6 equal chance for each face (1-6).

“A Posteriori” by Fermat, then later the exile Protestant French mathematician De Moivre (who discovered Normal Distribution), is based on observation of “already happened” statistic data.

Cardano (1501-1576) born 150 years earlier than Pascal and Fermat, himself a weird genius in Medicine, Math and an addictive gambler, found the rule of + and x for chances (he did not know the name ‘Probability’ then ):

Addition + Rule: throw a dice, chance to get a “1 and 2” faces:
1/6 +1/6 = 2/6 = 1/3

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