Logic: Pascal Wager

Math Online Tom Circle

Pascal Wager:

1. We can choose to believe God exists, or we can choose not to so believe.
2. If we reject God and act accordingly, we risk everlasting agony and torment if He does exist (Type I error in Statistics lingo) but enjoy fleeting earthly delights if He doesn’t exist.
3. If we accept God and act accordingly, we risk little if He doesn’t exist (Type II error) but enjoy endless heavenly bliss if He does exist.
4. It’s in our self-interest to accept God’s existence.
5. Therefore God exists!

Mathematical Proof:
Pascal assumed
Probability of God exists = p
Probability God doesn’t exist = 1-p

You lead 2 lives, either Worldly (世俗) or Piously (虔,诚) , you get rewards X, Y, infinity or Z, as shown in table below.
In Worldly Life, the Expectation in probability is
Ew = p.X + (1-p).Y
In pious life, the Expectation is

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