Leaving the EU would be a disaster: the bods at the Treasury have done the sums. They really have. Today, journalists attending a George Osborne speech were each handed a thumping great 200-page wodge of Treasury bumph, containing the mathematical formulae they’d used. Here’s one from page 159.
1n(Tijt) = α ij + Y t + α₁ 1n(Y it * Y jt ) + α₂ 1n(POP it * POP jt ) + ε ijt
= α ij + Y t + αX ijt + ε ijt
So now you know. Case closed. You can imagine the shockwaves this will send through the country. In pubs across the land they’ll be talking of little else.
“Don’t know about you, Baz, but I’m voting to leave. Get immigration down, take back our country, and stop this lot in Brussels pushing us around.”
“Come off it, Dave. Be realistic. What about 1n(Tijt)?”
“Well, it’s equal to α ij + Y t + α₁ 1n(Y it * Y jt ) + α₂ 1n(POP it * POP jt ) + ε ijt .”
“God, that’s a point. I’d never looked at it like that before.”
“See, it all makes sense when you think about it.”
“Fair enough, got me bang to rights there. And there was me thinking 3x(Tijt) = α it ₁ * Y jt + (X * Y it ) + 2X it ₃ – ε njt .”
At first I thought this was a joke. But apparently it is a real formula.